Is Ron Dayne Overrated?
This essay was originally written in the summer of 1998, before Dayne's junior season. It was then revisited/updated the following year. To make it a bit more readable, I did edit put some of the data into a table rather than listing it.
The question arises often as to whether or not Ron Dayne is a great back, or whether he is simply a good back piling up superficial numbers against mediocre teams. This belief often springs from the fact that a number of his poorest games have come in a national forum, most notably the Syracuse Kick Off Classic Game and the Outback Bowl against Georgia. I also sometimes get the impression that because he doesn’t play for a Nebraska, Michigan, or Florida State, etc. some have the natural inclination to at least some degree dismiss him.
Any player rating system in football is bound to be at least partially (if not primarily) subjective, as the variables in evaluating any player are extremely difficult to control for (different schemes, different offensive lines, different schedules, etc.) Still, let’s see if we can get to the bottom of the Ron Dayne...”overrated or great” debate in an empirical way.
First, let’s begin by looking at his raw numbers:
FRESHMAN YEAR: 325 carries, 2,109 yards, 21 TDs.
SOPHOMORE YEAR: 263 carries, 1,457, 15 TDs.
Dayne is 16th in career rushing in Big Ten History, needing 2,024 yards to break Archie Griffin’s conference record. Dayne's yardage total is the second-highest mark in NCAA history, 223 yards fewer than Herschel Walker, for yards gained as a freshman and sophomore. His career average per game (153.4) trails only Ed Marinaro, O.J. Simpson and Walker in NCAA history.
CONCLUSION: Certainly, these number alone suggest that he is among the elite backs of college football history.
Now, I will look at the various arguments often used by Dayne detractors in claiming he is overrated.
1.) “Dayne carries the ball more than other backs.”
What exactly constitutes a heavy work load?
Let’s look at the carries by last year’s top backs in the Big Ten and around the country (1,200 yards)-no bowl games included.
Amos Zereoue (WV)-264-1505
Ricky Williams (TX)-279-1893
RON DAYNE (WI)-249-1421
Jamal Lewis (UT)-232-1364
Ahman Green (NEB)-278-1877
Tavian Banks (IA)-246-1639
Travis Prentice (MOH)-296-1549
Dwayne Harris (TOL)-254-1278
Curtis Enis (PSU)-228-1363
Robert Holcombe(ILL)-294-1253
Sedrick Irvin (MSU)-231-1211
Fred Taylor (UF)-214-1292
Autry Denson (ND)-264-1268
In relation to these 14 top rushers, Dayne ranked number 8 in terms of total carries. Of the 6 below him, only Tavian Banks had more yards (and he is also a candidate for racking up the yards on poor teams question).
CONCLUSION: Clearly, Dayne did not get the ball significantly more or less often than other top running backs.
Let’s go back to his freshman year. We’ll take a look at the Big Ten numbers (since I don’t have the NCAA stats handy).
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Darnell Autry (NU)-280-1452
Alex Smith (IND)-292-1248
Pepe Pearson (OSU)-299-1484
Robert Holcombe (ILL)-260-1281
Sedrick Shaw (IA)-224-1116
Dayne had more carries than anyone else in the Big Ten in ‘96, though not by a huge margin (about 2-3 carries per game). However, nobody was even close to him in total yards. A more accurate comparison might be comparing Dayne to all rushers who have run for 2,000 yards in a season.
Barry Sanders (OKST)-373-2850
Marcus Allen (USC)-433-2427
Mike Rozier (NEB)-300-2295
Troy Davis (ISU)-402-2185
Tony Dorsett (PTT)-370-2150
Byron Hanspard (TT)-357-2148
Rashaan Salaam (COL)-325-2138
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Wasean Tait (TOL)-387-2090
Lorenzo White (MSU)-419-2066
Charles White (USC)-332-2050
Troy Davis (ISU)-345-2010
Of the 11 individuals who have run for 2,000 yards (Davis twice), only Mike Rozier did it in fewer carries. Only Rozier, Sanders, and Salaam averaged more yards per carry.
CONCLUSION: Clearly, if anything, Dayne gets the ball somewhat LESS than other great backs in college football history!!!
2.) “Dayne runs for most of his yards against the bad teams.”
Let’s examine Dayne game by game throughout his career. Bowl teams are indicated with a *.
FRESHMAN YEAR
Eastern Michigan-8-53
UNLV-13-90
Stanford-12-75
*Penn State-24-129
(Dayne had not yet started any games and until Penn State, was getting only mop up duty.)
*Ohio State-21-65
*Northwestern-28-139
*Michigan State-15-81
Purdue-30-244
Minnesota-50-297
*Iowa-17-62
Illinois-41-289
Hawaii-36-339
*Utah-30-246
SOPHOMORE YEAR
*Syracuse-13-46
Boise State-DNP (injury)
San Jose State-20-254
San Diego State-26-145
Indiana-34-202
Northwestern-25-93
Illinois-28-207
*Purdue-26-141
Minnesota-40-183
*Iowa-7-24 (removed in 1st quarter-injury)
*Michigan-DNP (injury)
*Penn State-30-126
*Georgia-14-36
Now, the first game to consider separately is the Iowa game during his soph year. Dayne severely sprained an ankle in the first series of the game, and never returned. I will throw out this game when figuring averages.
First, let’s get pure average:
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yards per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
CONCLUSION: Of the top, I would say that his numbers against bowl teams are decent but not great. His numbers against non-bowl teams are staggering.
So, the question becomes, what is to be expected from a back when you are facing a bowl team? What do other top backs do against similar competition?
First, let’s look at the top 14 rushing games in Big Ten History:
Anthony Thompson (IND)-52-377 vs. Wisconsin, 1989
Eric Allen (MSU)-29-350 vs. Purdue, 1971
Ron Johnson (MI)-31-347 vs. Wisconsin, 1968
RON DAYNE (WI)-36-339 vs. Hawaii, 1996
Mike Adamle (NW)-40-316 vs. Wisconsin, 1969
Eddie George (OSU)-36-314 vs. Illinois, 1995
Tavian Banks (IA)-29-314 vs. Tulsa, 1997
Tim Biakabutuku (MI)-37-313 vs. OSU, 1995
Billy Marek (WI)-43-304 vs. Minnesota, 1974
RON DAYNE (WI)-50-297 vs. Minnesota, 1996
Byron Sanders (NW)-46-295 vs. Minnesota, 1987
Chris Darkins (MIN)-38-294 vs. Purdue, 1995
Lorenzo White (MSU)-56-292 vs. Indiana, 1987
RON DAYNE (WI)-41-289 vs. Illinois, 1996
First, it is interesting that Dayne is the only player on the list with more than one game over 289 yards in Big Ten history, having accomplished it 3 times. Now, of these 14 games, only 2 of them were accomplished against good teams (Biakabutuku and White). And of these games against good teams, White did need 56 carries to accomplish the mark (averaging only 5.2 YPC).
CONCLUSION: Dayne racks up his biggest yardage games against poor teams, but this is generally the case with all great rushing games. There are some exceptions, but most are done against the “stinkers”.
Now let’s look at the other NCAA rushers who gained over 1,200 yards in 1997, game by game. First, notice that many many top rushers have mediocre games even during great seasons, just as Dayne has:
Amos Zeroue-20-52 vs. BC
Ricky Williams-13-36 vs. UCLA
Jamal Lewis-17-68 vs. Southern Miss, 17-67 vs. Alabama(Lewis also did not start early in the year so those games were not included)
Tavian Banks-22-84 vs. Ohio State.
Travis Prentice-13-58 vs. Army
Dwayne Harris-13-55 vs. Northern Illinois
Robert Holcombe-23-63 vs. Wisconsin
Sedrick Irvin-19-61 vs. Ohio State
Autry Denson-15-59 vs. Michigan State
Denson-25-72 vs. Michigan
Now let’s take a look at each runners’ statistics against bowl teams vs. non-bowl teams:
Any player rating system in football is bound to be at least partially (if not primarily) subjective, as the variables in evaluating any player are extremely difficult to control for (different schemes, different offensive lines, different schedules, etc.) Still, let’s see if we can get to the bottom of the Ron Dayne...”overrated or great” debate in an empirical way.
First, let’s begin by looking at his raw numbers:
FRESHMAN YEAR: 325 carries, 2,109 yards, 21 TDs.
SOPHOMORE YEAR: 263 carries, 1,457, 15 TDs.
Dayne is 16th in career rushing in Big Ten History, needing 2,024 yards to break Archie Griffin’s conference record. Dayne's yardage total is the second-highest mark in NCAA history, 223 yards fewer than Herschel Walker, for yards gained as a freshman and sophomore. His career average per game (153.4) trails only Ed Marinaro, O.J. Simpson and Walker in NCAA history.
CONCLUSION: Certainly, these number alone suggest that he is among the elite backs of college football history.
Now, I will look at the various arguments often used by Dayne detractors in claiming he is overrated.
1.) “Dayne carries the ball more than other backs.”
What exactly constitutes a heavy work load?
Let’s look at the carries by last year’s top backs in the Big Ten and around the country (1,200 yards)-no bowl games included.
Amos Zereoue (WV)-264-1505
Ricky Williams (TX)-279-1893
RON DAYNE (WI)-249-1421
Jamal Lewis (UT)-232-1364
Ahman Green (NEB)-278-1877
Tavian Banks (IA)-246-1639
Travis Prentice (MOH)-296-1549
Dwayne Harris (TOL)-254-1278
Curtis Enis (PSU)-228-1363
Robert Holcombe(ILL)-294-1253
Sedrick Irvin (MSU)-231-1211
Fred Taylor (UF)-214-1292
Autry Denson (ND)-264-1268
In relation to these 14 top rushers, Dayne ranked number 8 in terms of total carries. Of the 6 below him, only Tavian Banks had more yards (and he is also a candidate for racking up the yards on poor teams question).
CONCLUSION: Clearly, Dayne did not get the ball significantly more or less often than other top running backs.
Let’s go back to his freshman year. We’ll take a look at the Big Ten numbers (since I don’t have the NCAA stats handy).
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Darnell Autry (NU)-280-1452
Alex Smith (IND)-292-1248
Pepe Pearson (OSU)-299-1484
Robert Holcombe (ILL)-260-1281
Sedrick Shaw (IA)-224-1116
Dayne had more carries than anyone else in the Big Ten in ‘96, though not by a huge margin (about 2-3 carries per game). However, nobody was even close to him in total yards. A more accurate comparison might be comparing Dayne to all rushers who have run for 2,000 yards in a season.
Barry Sanders (OKST)-373-2850
Marcus Allen (USC)-433-2427
Mike Rozier (NEB)-300-2295
Troy Davis (ISU)-402-2185
Tony Dorsett (PTT)-370-2150
Byron Hanspard (TT)-357-2148
Rashaan Salaam (COL)-325-2138
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Wasean Tait (TOL)-387-2090
Lorenzo White (MSU)-419-2066
Charles White (USC)-332-2050
Troy Davis (ISU)-345-2010
Of the 11 individuals who have run for 2,000 yards (Davis twice), only Mike Rozier did it in fewer carries. Only Rozier, Sanders, and Salaam averaged more yards per carry.
CONCLUSION: Clearly, if anything, Dayne gets the ball somewhat LESS than other great backs in college football history!!!
2.) “Dayne runs for most of his yards against the bad teams.”
Let’s examine Dayne game by game throughout his career. Bowl teams are indicated with a *.
FRESHMAN YEAR
Eastern Michigan-8-53
UNLV-13-90
Stanford-12-75
*Penn State-24-129
(Dayne had not yet started any games and until Penn State, was getting only mop up duty.)
*Ohio State-21-65
*Northwestern-28-139
*Michigan State-15-81
Purdue-30-244
Minnesota-50-297
*Iowa-17-62
Illinois-41-289
Hawaii-36-339
*Utah-30-246
SOPHOMORE YEAR
*Syracuse-13-46
Boise State-DNP (injury)
San Jose State-20-254
San Diego State-26-145
Indiana-34-202
Northwestern-25-93
Illinois-28-207
*Purdue-26-141
Minnesota-40-183
*Iowa-7-24 (removed in 1st quarter-injury)
*Michigan-DNP (injury)
*Penn State-30-126
*Georgia-14-36
Now, the first game to consider separately is the Iowa game during his soph year. Dayne severely sprained an ankle in the first series of the game, and never returned. I will throw out this game when figuring averages.
First, let’s get pure average:
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yards per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
CONCLUSION: Of the top, I would say that his numbers against bowl teams are decent but not great. His numbers against non-bowl teams are staggering.
So, the question becomes, what is to be expected from a back when you are facing a bowl team? What do other top backs do against similar competition?
First, let’s look at the top 14 rushing games in Big Ten History:
Anthony Thompson (IND)-52-377 vs. Wisconsin, 1989
Eric Allen (MSU)-29-350 vs. Purdue, 1971
Ron Johnson (MI)-31-347 vs. Wisconsin, 1968
RON DAYNE (WI)-36-339 vs. Hawaii, 1996
Mike Adamle (NW)-40-316 vs. Wisconsin, 1969
Eddie George (OSU)-36-314 vs. Illinois, 1995
Tavian Banks (IA)-29-314 vs. Tulsa, 1997
Tim Biakabutuku (MI)-37-313 vs. OSU, 1995
Billy Marek (WI)-43-304 vs. Minnesota, 1974
RON DAYNE (WI)-50-297 vs. Minnesota, 1996
Byron Sanders (NW)-46-295 vs. Minnesota, 1987
Chris Darkins (MIN)-38-294 vs. Purdue, 1995
Lorenzo White (MSU)-56-292 vs. Indiana, 1987
RON DAYNE (WI)-41-289 vs. Illinois, 1996
First, it is interesting that Dayne is the only player on the list with more than one game over 289 yards in Big Ten history, having accomplished it 3 times. Now, of these 14 games, only 2 of them were accomplished against good teams (Biakabutuku and White). And of these games against good teams, White did need 56 carries to accomplish the mark (averaging only 5.2 YPC).
CONCLUSION: Dayne racks up his biggest yardage games against poor teams, but this is generally the case with all great rushing games. There are some exceptions, but most are done against the “stinkers”.
Now let’s look at the other NCAA rushers who gained over 1,200 yards in 1997, game by game. First, notice that many many top rushers have mediocre games even during great seasons, just as Dayne has:
Amos Zeroue-20-52 vs. BC
Ricky Williams-13-36 vs. UCLA
Jamal Lewis-17-68 vs. Southern Miss, 17-67 vs. Alabama(Lewis also did not start early in the year so those games were not included)
Tavian Banks-22-84 vs. Ohio State.
Travis Prentice-13-58 vs. Army
Dwayne Harris-13-55 vs. Northern Illinois
Robert Holcombe-23-63 vs. Wisconsin
Sedrick Irvin-19-61 vs. Ohio State
Autry Denson-15-59 vs. Michigan State
Denson-25-72 vs. Michigan
Now let’s take a look at each runners’ statistics against bowl teams vs. non-bowl teams:
CONCLUSION: Typically, star backs run for about 0.7 fewer yards per carry against good teams. They run for 10 fewer yards per game against good teams.
Let’s go back and check out Dayne’s numbers.
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yards per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
CONCLUSION: Nobody even touches Dayne against non-bowl games. However, when facing bowl caliber teams, his number do not stack up. He is 26 yards per game under the average for top backs against bowl teams. On first inspection, it appears that the criticism of Dayne is extremely valid.
Let’s look a little bit deeper. Dayne’s yards per carry against bowl teams is a respectable 4.9 per carry, while the average of top backs is only slightly higher at 5.3 yards per carry. This leads us to the next question, does Ron Dayne get fewer carries per game against top teams than most backs? I have already touched upon Ahman Green and Fred Taylor who definitely fit into the classification of players who “get the ball more against good teams.”
Average carries per game of the star backs against non-bowl teams-23
Average carries per game of the star back against bowl teams-23
CONCLUSION: Green and Taylor are the exceptions (due to the superiority of their teams perhaps???). Backs generally average exactly the same amount of carries regardless of the quality of the opponent.
Again, let’s check out Dayne:
Average carries per game against non-bowl teams-36
Average carries per game against bowl teams-20.
CONCLUSION: Dayne gets many more carries per game against non-bowl teams! I would hypothesize that since Wisconsin has NOT been a dominant team the last 2 years, (and since as you will soon read, Wisconsin does not pad his stats against these teams), DAYNE IS NEEDED TO CARRY A LOT TO WIN THE GAME. Whereas Nebraska and Florida steamroll these non-bowl teams, thus allowing Green and Taylor to take a breather, Dayne must stay in the game as it is still in doubt. In addition, he gets the ball about 3 times fewer per game against the top teams than the average back. Add these 3 carries (x 4.9 YPC) and you can add on about 15 yards per game onto Dayne’s numbers, bringing him to 113 yards per game against bowl teams, still under the average of 123, but much closer to the average and about in line with many of the individuals (equal or greater than Denson, Taylor, Irvin, Holcombe, Banks, and Lewis). So, these 3 carries per game are indeed important. Why does he get 3 fewer per game than the others? Well, again I would hypothesize that due to Wisconsin’s poor record against bowl teams, the games have been out of reach and Dayne has left early. Blowouts against bowl teams have been much too common for the Badgers the last two years, thereby hurting Dayne’s numbers.
As many know, Ron Dayne played injured last year and behind an inexperienced OL. Could his overall numbers been severely brought down his second year over his first because of this? Let’s take a look.
‘96 against bowl teams:135 carries, 722 yards, 5.4 YPC, 120 YPG
‘97 against bowl teams: 83 carries, 349 yards, 4.2 YPC, 87 YPG
CONCLUSION: Obviously, he slipped tremendously from his freshman to his sophomore year in this regard. Whether it was the injury, the poor blocking, the randomness of a small sample size, or some other factor, I will leave up to you to decide. But, if you look at his ‘96 numbers against bowl teams, they are right on target where the typical star backs are against bowl teams.
3.)”Ron Dayne convieniently gets hurt against the good teams”
Well, aside from the fact that he was hurt for the majority of the ‘97 season, he only missed full games against Boise State and Michigan. I would say that is a push. He missed a great chance to rack up yards against Boise State while also missing a chance to get stymied by the number one defense in the country (although for the record, Carl McCullough ran for 102 yards on 20 carries against the Wolverines, so we can’t assume anything.) He also missed most of the Iowa game.
4.) “Dayne pads his stats against patsies late in games”
Actually, there have been four games in his career against good teams where he was pulled EARLY in the game with well under 20 carries, because the team was getting slaughtered. Instead of staying in the game and racking up yards, Alvarez pulled him and “saved him for another day”.
Michigan State: 15-81
Iowa: 17-62
Syracuse: 13-46
Georgia: 14-36
For argument’s sake, let’s pretend that Alvarez would have left him in at garbage time and he would have received 25 carries in each of those games. I will extrapolate the results based on the the same per carry average (even though all four of those teams were playing backup players in the 4th quarter against the Badgers and it isn’t inconceivable that Dayne could have broken one long.) Here are the results of how he “might” have done if not pulled early and gotten his 25 carries.
Michigan State: 25-135
Iowa: 25-91
Syracuse: 25-88
Georgia: 25-69
Hypothetically, if Dayne would have remained in the game against these top teams, he would have had a very good game against MSU, OK games against Iowa and Syracuse, and Georgia would have continued to shut him down.
Now, let’s see how many times in his big games against bad teams that he was removed early. (Not taking into account that in his first 3 games as a freshman against subpar opponents, he received limited carries.)
Purdue: removed midway through the 4th quarter
Illinois: removed with 9:00 to play
Hawaii: removed mid way through the third quarter.
Utah: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th.
San Jose State: removed in the mid third quarter
San Diego State: removed with 7:00 remaining in the 4th.
Illinois: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th.
This phenomenon is not unique to many great backs, especially those on very good teams. I don't mean to suggest that Dayne's number against these bad teams should have been better. Any back on a good team can make this claim. However, these numbers show conclusively that his number have NOT been enhanced by late game garbage yards.
CONCLUSION: If anything, his numbers COULD BE MUCH BETTER if he remained in games both against good opponents and bad opponents. He has only played 23 college games. In those games, he played what we might call the entire game only 9 times while 14 times he got only part time or 3/4 time!!! (3 games before he established himself, the 4 games where the Badgers were out of the game early, and 7 games where the Badgers were well ahead)
SUBJECTIVE ISSUES
Although this has been a fact-based evaluation of Ron Dayne, I will touch briefly on two important subjective issues that may come into play when discussing Dayne.
First, Dayne has thrived in an offense with few alternative threats, namely in the passing game. Mike Samuel has been a very poor QB, allowing teams to stack the line against the run. Many of the players in this comparative evaluation have had the benefit of at least a marginal passing attack able to take at least some of the heat off of them. Dayne has not been this lucky. He has constantly faced 8 and 9 man fronts with few teams having any respect for Wisconsin’s passing game. This has to hinder his numbers in my opinion.
Secondly, as touched upon earlier, many of the top backs have benefitted from solid offensive lines. Dayne was one of these players in his first year, playing behind an experienced if not overly talented offensive line. However, running behind an OL with 3 freshmen and a sophomore starting could have done nothing but hurt his numbers in 1997.
SUMMARY
Here is what we have learned about Ron Dayne through this study:
Without question, Ron Dayne has certainly put up some mind-boggling numbers, especially considering the fact that he is only entering his junior year. Yes, there are some questions regarding his performance.
This year is in fact very important for Ron Dayne. If he rebounds from a mediocre (in Dayne terms) sophomore year and posts 130 yards per game against bowl teams much as he did his freshman year, I think you can drop the criticisms and acknowledge that Ron Dayne is one of the best college backs we have seen in the last 10 years.
If however, he duplicates his sophomore numbers against bowl teams, I think you can seriously question the overall quality of his yards, simply labeling him as a good back (one of the greatest ever against mediocre teams), but one who couldn’t get it done against the “Big Boys” (whether his fault or the team’s fault.) I don’t think the evidence is conclusive in either direction at this point.
Let’s go back and check out Dayne’s numbers.
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yards per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
CONCLUSION: Nobody even touches Dayne against non-bowl games. However, when facing bowl caliber teams, his number do not stack up. He is 26 yards per game under the average for top backs against bowl teams. On first inspection, it appears that the criticism of Dayne is extremely valid.
Let’s look a little bit deeper. Dayne’s yards per carry against bowl teams is a respectable 4.9 per carry, while the average of top backs is only slightly higher at 5.3 yards per carry. This leads us to the next question, does Ron Dayne get fewer carries per game against top teams than most backs? I have already touched upon Ahman Green and Fred Taylor who definitely fit into the classification of players who “get the ball more against good teams.”
Average carries per game of the star backs against non-bowl teams-23
Average carries per game of the star back against bowl teams-23
CONCLUSION: Green and Taylor are the exceptions (due to the superiority of their teams perhaps???). Backs generally average exactly the same amount of carries regardless of the quality of the opponent.
Again, let’s check out Dayne:
Average carries per game against non-bowl teams-36
Average carries per game against bowl teams-20.
CONCLUSION: Dayne gets many more carries per game against non-bowl teams! I would hypothesize that since Wisconsin has NOT been a dominant team the last 2 years, (and since as you will soon read, Wisconsin does not pad his stats against these teams), DAYNE IS NEEDED TO CARRY A LOT TO WIN THE GAME. Whereas Nebraska and Florida steamroll these non-bowl teams, thus allowing Green and Taylor to take a breather, Dayne must stay in the game as it is still in doubt. In addition, he gets the ball about 3 times fewer per game against the top teams than the average back. Add these 3 carries (x 4.9 YPC) and you can add on about 15 yards per game onto Dayne’s numbers, bringing him to 113 yards per game against bowl teams, still under the average of 123, but much closer to the average and about in line with many of the individuals (equal or greater than Denson, Taylor, Irvin, Holcombe, Banks, and Lewis). So, these 3 carries per game are indeed important. Why does he get 3 fewer per game than the others? Well, again I would hypothesize that due to Wisconsin’s poor record against bowl teams, the games have been out of reach and Dayne has left early. Blowouts against bowl teams have been much too common for the Badgers the last two years, thereby hurting Dayne’s numbers.
As many know, Ron Dayne played injured last year and behind an inexperienced OL. Could his overall numbers been severely brought down his second year over his first because of this? Let’s take a look.
‘96 against bowl teams:135 carries, 722 yards, 5.4 YPC, 120 YPG
‘97 against bowl teams: 83 carries, 349 yards, 4.2 YPC, 87 YPG
CONCLUSION: Obviously, he slipped tremendously from his freshman to his sophomore year in this regard. Whether it was the injury, the poor blocking, the randomness of a small sample size, or some other factor, I will leave up to you to decide. But, if you look at his ‘96 numbers against bowl teams, they are right on target where the typical star backs are against bowl teams.
3.)”Ron Dayne convieniently gets hurt against the good teams”
Well, aside from the fact that he was hurt for the majority of the ‘97 season, he only missed full games against Boise State and Michigan. I would say that is a push. He missed a great chance to rack up yards against Boise State while also missing a chance to get stymied by the number one defense in the country (although for the record, Carl McCullough ran for 102 yards on 20 carries against the Wolverines, so we can’t assume anything.) He also missed most of the Iowa game.
4.) “Dayne pads his stats against patsies late in games”
Actually, there have been four games in his career against good teams where he was pulled EARLY in the game with well under 20 carries, because the team was getting slaughtered. Instead of staying in the game and racking up yards, Alvarez pulled him and “saved him for another day”.
Michigan State: 15-81
Iowa: 17-62
Syracuse: 13-46
Georgia: 14-36
For argument’s sake, let’s pretend that Alvarez would have left him in at garbage time and he would have received 25 carries in each of those games. I will extrapolate the results based on the the same per carry average (even though all four of those teams were playing backup players in the 4th quarter against the Badgers and it isn’t inconceivable that Dayne could have broken one long.) Here are the results of how he “might” have done if not pulled early and gotten his 25 carries.
Michigan State: 25-135
Iowa: 25-91
Syracuse: 25-88
Georgia: 25-69
Hypothetically, if Dayne would have remained in the game against these top teams, he would have had a very good game against MSU, OK games against Iowa and Syracuse, and Georgia would have continued to shut him down.
Now, let’s see how many times in his big games against bad teams that he was removed early. (Not taking into account that in his first 3 games as a freshman against subpar opponents, he received limited carries.)
Purdue: removed midway through the 4th quarter
Illinois: removed with 9:00 to play
Hawaii: removed mid way through the third quarter.
Utah: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th.
San Jose State: removed in the mid third quarter
San Diego State: removed with 7:00 remaining in the 4th.
Illinois: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th.
This phenomenon is not unique to many great backs, especially those on very good teams. I don't mean to suggest that Dayne's number against these bad teams should have been better. Any back on a good team can make this claim. However, these numbers show conclusively that his number have NOT been enhanced by late game garbage yards.
CONCLUSION: If anything, his numbers COULD BE MUCH BETTER if he remained in games both against good opponents and bad opponents. He has only played 23 college games. In those games, he played what we might call the entire game only 9 times while 14 times he got only part time or 3/4 time!!! (3 games before he established himself, the 4 games where the Badgers were out of the game early, and 7 games where the Badgers were well ahead)
SUBJECTIVE ISSUES
Although this has been a fact-based evaluation of Ron Dayne, I will touch briefly on two important subjective issues that may come into play when discussing Dayne.
First, Dayne has thrived in an offense with few alternative threats, namely in the passing game. Mike Samuel has been a very poor QB, allowing teams to stack the line against the run. Many of the players in this comparative evaluation have had the benefit of at least a marginal passing attack able to take at least some of the heat off of them. Dayne has not been this lucky. He has constantly faced 8 and 9 man fronts with few teams having any respect for Wisconsin’s passing game. This has to hinder his numbers in my opinion.
Secondly, as touched upon earlier, many of the top backs have benefitted from solid offensive lines. Dayne was one of these players in his first year, playing behind an experienced if not overly talented offensive line. However, running behind an OL with 3 freshmen and a sophomore starting could have done nothing but hurt his numbers in 1997.
SUMMARY
Here is what we have learned about Ron Dayne through this study:
- The raw numbers show Ron Dayne to be among college football’s all-time greats.
- Ron Dayne gets the ball no more often than typical star running backs do.
- Ron Dayne gets the ball fewer times than the elite all-time great college running backs do, yet puts up similar numbers.
- Ron Dayne's greatest games (290+ yards) are accumulated against poor teams. This is consistent with most great games by all backs in Big Ten history.
- The average star back gains a bit less than 1 yard per carry fewer against bowl teams than against non-bowl teams. They gain on the average 10 yards fewer per game.
- Nobody is even remotely close to Dayne’s performance against non-bowl teams, where he has averaged 247 yards per game against non-bowl teams in his career.
- Dayne’s performance drops drastically against bowl-caliber teams.
- Typical backs carry the ball an equal amount of times against either bowl or non-bowl competition, 23 times per game on the average.
- Ron Dayne carries the ball 36 times per game against non-bowl teams, much higher than the average.
- Ron Dayne carries the ball 20 times per game against bowl teams, 3 fewer per game than the typical star back.
- If Dayne were “given” these 3 extra carries per game against the bowl teams, retaining the same per carry average, his numbers would be a match for backs such as Denson, Taylor, Irvin, Holcombe, Banks, and Lewis, though still about 10 yards shy of the average.
- Dayne’s ‘96 averages against bowl teams were almost exactly in line with typical star backs’ performances against bowl teams.
- Dayne’s ‘97 averages against bowl teams were much much below those of typical star back’s performance against bowl teams.
- The reason for this decline are unproven.
- Ron Dayne has not missed an inordinate amount of time versus bowl teams.
- Dayne has only played a full game 9 out of 23 times in his college career. He has been removed early in the game often. Therefore his numbers are not padded by garbage time stats.
- There are a couple of subjective issues which may or may not affect Dayne’s general performance, but are unprovable.
Without question, Ron Dayne has certainly put up some mind-boggling numbers, especially considering the fact that he is only entering his junior year. Yes, there are some questions regarding his performance.
This year is in fact very important for Ron Dayne. If he rebounds from a mediocre (in Dayne terms) sophomore year and posts 130 yards per game against bowl teams much as he did his freshman year, I think you can drop the criticisms and acknowledge that Ron Dayne is one of the best college backs we have seen in the last 10 years.
If however, he duplicates his sophomore numbers against bowl teams, I think you can seriously question the overall quality of his yards, simply labeling him as a good back (one of the greatest ever against mediocre teams), but one who couldn’t get it done against the “Big Boys” (whether his fault or the team’s fault.) I don’t think the evidence is conclusive in either direction at this point.
After presenting my finding to the public eye, a number of individuals questioned or pointed out ways that they felt my methods may have been somewhat biased. Most notably was the assumption that a bowl team by definition would have a strong defense. Logically of course, this is not always true. There are bowl caliber teams which possess poor defenses. So, I decided to look at the numbers:
Generally speaking, bowl teams DO have the best defenses (which makes sense logically).
Still, I think it is a valid issue. So, I wished to find out exactly how each runner did compared to the expected total against each opponent. So, if Wisconsin surrenders 152 YPG on the ground per game, any game above that total would yield a positive number, while any below would yield a negative result.
Note, before I give you the numbers, realize that many games will be given a negative value. This is because the team averages are what they surrender to an entire team, not just to an individual runner. Also, surprisingly, often times the worse the defense, the more it penalizes runners. So, take Tulsa for instance. They surrendered 310 YPG last season per game on the ground. So, if a back “only” runs for 200 yards, he has a “game value” of -110. However, if he runs for 314 against them (like Tavian Banks did), he still gets some credit. To gain any points against a poor defense, you really need to gain some serious yardage. Conversely, great games against great defenses are worth their weight in gold. In fact, any games as a positive value are outstanding games.
Yardage Relative to Opposing Rush Defense
Generally speaking, bowl teams DO have the best defenses (which makes sense logically).
- Of the top 32 defenses in the country last year against the run, 26 of them went to bowl games (81%).
- Another 4 teams that went to bowl games were still in the upper half (36 K-St, 37-WV, 42-GA Tech, 55-Wis).
- Only 10 of the teams would be considered below average against the run (61-NM, 64-PTT, 67-A&M, 69-Miss, 78-PUR, 81-PSU, 82-Marshall, 83-ND, 91-ORE, 93-Missou)
Still, I think it is a valid issue. So, I wished to find out exactly how each runner did compared to the expected total against each opponent. So, if Wisconsin surrenders 152 YPG on the ground per game, any game above that total would yield a positive number, while any below would yield a negative result.
Note, before I give you the numbers, realize that many games will be given a negative value. This is because the team averages are what they surrender to an entire team, not just to an individual runner. Also, surprisingly, often times the worse the defense, the more it penalizes runners. So, take Tulsa for instance. They surrendered 310 YPG last season per game on the ground. So, if a back “only” runs for 200 yards, he has a “game value” of -110. However, if he runs for 314 against them (like Tavian Banks did), he still gets some credit. To gain any points against a poor defense, you really need to gain some serious yardage. Conversely, great games against great defenses are worth their weight in gold. In fact, any games as a positive value are outstanding games.
Yardage Relative to Opposing Rush Defense
Dayne ran for an average of 21 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had eight positive game during the two seasons. Now, here is what is really interesting about Dayne. People think that his numbers get killed by the top teams. BUT, using this method, what really kills him are his first three games. Other than Jamal Lewis of Tennessee (coming in a sec), EVERY OTHER BACK BEGAN THEIR SEASON AS THE FEATURE BACK!!! Dayne did not start until his 5th college game. I will keep his 4th college game in the study as he did get 24 carries against PSU. But, take a look at what happens to his numbers when we take out those games against Eastern Michigan, UNLV, and Stanford (when he could have really run wild if he had been starting.)
1996: +16.7 YPG!!!!!!!! (Nobody else in the study comes even remotely close to being in the positive range). Think about that for a second. After becoming a starter, Dayne ran for 16 yards per game MORE than the opposing defense typically surrendered by the entire opposing team!!!!
Without these first 3 games in his career, his overall numbers come in at -2 YPG. This would still make him the best back in college football over this time period.
CONCLUSION: This study reinforces the belief that Dayne is indeed a top back. A typical star back will rush for 29 yards per game fewer than the opposing defense typically allows to their opposing TEAM. Dayne only runs for 21 yards per game fewer. Dayne ranks 4th among top backs in this respect. If you throw out the 3 games beginning his freshman year in whic his snaps were limited, he becomes the only back to be ranked in the positives. You can also do this with Jamal Lewis of Tennessee.
1999 UPDATE
Well, we have another season of Dayne data to dissect and continue our discussion of whether or not he truly should be considered a great collegiate back or just a very good one that benefits from a number of key circumstances. I shall recap the important points from the previous studies and then look at Dayne’s 1998 season to see how he compares.
1.) The Raw Numbers
Ron Dayne ran 295 times for 1525 yards and 15 TDs in 1998 averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Subjectively, they continue to look pretty good, though what is a bit alarming is the yards per carry which has now dropped the last two seasons. Is Dayne’s production decreasing? Is he returning to his true level? Is there something else at play here? Let’s take a look.
2.) Number of carries
Dayne’s carries went up by about 30 carries from the previous season, though still falling 30 carries short of his freshman year. If you recall, 295 carries is certainly a solid load, though not abnormal for other top backs.
Other top backs from 1998:
Ricky Williams: 391 carries (about 70 more than Dayne has EVER gotten in a season)
Travis Prentice: 364 carries
Mike Cloud: 308 carries
Devin West: 314 carries
“Other” RickyWilliams: 329 carries
Edgerrin James: 262 carries
James Johnson: 258 carries
Denvis Manns: 269 carries
Amos Zeroue: 293 carries
CONCLUSION: Ron Dayne still does not carry the ball any more than most top rushers (and in fact less than some).
His number of carries per game was up about 3 carries per game (more in a bit).
Dayne’s season did not go down as one of the all-time greats, but realize that NOBODY has ever had a 2000 yard season with under 300 carries. In fact, as Ricky Williams’ season showed, in order to have what is considered an elite season, a runner must generally get the ball at least 340 times or so (and often closer to 400 times).
3.) Dayne runs well against bad teams but is shut down against good ones.
This is the most common complaint against Dayne and one which on the surface again has some merit as Michigan held him to his worst game in 1998. First, if you recall, we looked at how he did against bowl vs. non-bowl teams.
Dayne VS. Non-Bowl Teams: 1004 yards on 196 carries, 5.1 YPC, 143 YPG.
Dayne VS. Bowl Teams: 521 yards on 99 carries, 5.3 YPC, 130 YPG.
He averaged 28 carries per game against the non-bowl teams and 25 carries per game against the bowl teams. Give him those three extra carries, and the numbers are almost a dead heat.
CONCLUSION: In 1998, Dayne ran just as well vs. bowl teams as non-bowl teams. This is quite different from past Dayne seasons. His number were much better in 1998 against the bowl teams, but down over 100 yards per game from his first two seasons against the non-bowl teams. Were the teams he played that much better in 1998 or did Dayne’s level of play drop off?
4.) Bowl teams don’t always have good defenses...how did he do considering the defense he is up against?
If you recall, at this point in the conversation, this very important point was raised. “Yeah, he ran for a bunch of yards against UCLA...but who didn’t? Just because they were a bowl team doesn’t mean they were any good!”
At this point, I decided to go game by game with each of the top runners. How did they do against an opponent relative to what that defense allows. So, if Wisconsin’s defense allows 90 yards per game rushing, what should a top back be expected to get? If UNLV allows 275 yards per game rushing, what is an acceptable total?
So, I went game by game and determined that top backs generally run for about 29 yards fewer than a defense typically allows/ So, using the UNLV example again...if the Rebs allow 275 yards rushing per game, a top back would be expected to gain 246 yards (275-29). Anything under 246 yards and it would be considered a below average game. In order to really impress against a bad defensive team, you need to rack up some serious yardage. On the other hand, great games against great defenses are worth their weight in gold . Any “score” that is either positive or close to 0 is considered an excellent mark for a game.
(If you recall, this method put Dayne at -21 YPG for his career which was one of the top figures for backs. If you threw out his first three college games in which he only got mop up duty, he became the ONLY back to actually rank in the positives for this scale.)
Dayne as you can see is off to a horrible start, in large part because Alvarez just didn’t use him much in these two blowouts, rushing only 33 times combined. In particular, the UNLV game in which he only got 13 carries puts him in a huge huge hole.
FOR THE YEAR: Dayne’s score came out to be a -12.9. This is an excellent score and in fact better than his career norm. Dayne ran for only 12.9 yards fewer per game than the opposing defense typically allowed to the entire opponent. Considering that Dayne was put in a huge hole in that UNLV game and considering that he carried the ball much much less than backs such as Ricky Williams or Travis Prentice, these numbers are simply terrific.
CONCLUSION: Ron Dayne’s numbers were down in some regards in 1998, but much of that is due to the fact that he was playing against tougher defenses. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State had outstanding run defenses, while even teams like Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana were solid against the run, making those yards much harder to come by. Even UCLA had a borderline respectable rushing defense statistically speaking.
Now, before we get carried away and start believing that Dayne was deserving of the Heisman or something, realize that Mr. Williams at Texas ran for an average of 44 yards MORE than his opponent typically allowed, the highest number I have seen in the last couple of years.
But, here is the difference in Dayne and Williams: Dayne 13 carries against UNLV. Williams...36 carries against New Mexico State (with their horrible rushing defense). Dayne received a game score of -125 against UNLV, while Williams received a game score of +41 in his game. Triple Dayne’s carries to 39, and his game score goes to +91.
CONCLUSION: Once again, Ron Dayne had a terrific season in 1998. His numbers were down a bit, in large part due to the better defenses he played against. His numbers did not compare to the Heisman Trophy winner, though much of that was due to the extreme number of carries Ricky Williams received, especially against bad teams.
FOR THE YEAR: Dayne’s score came out to be a -12.9. This is an excellent score and in fact better than his career norm. Dayne ran for only 12.9 yards fewer per game than the opposing defense typically allowed to the entire opponent. Considering that Dayne was put in a huge hole in that UNLV game and considering that he carried the ball much much less than backs such as Ricky Williams or Travis Prentice, these numbers are simply terrific.
CONCLUSION: Ron Dayne’s numbers were down in some regards in 1998, but much of that is due to the fact that he was playing against tougher defenses. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State had outstanding run defenses, while even teams like Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana were solid against the run, making those yards much harder to come by. Even UCLA had a borderline respectable rushing defense statistically speaking.
Now, before we get carried away and start believing that Dayne was deserving of the Heisman or something, realize that Mr. Williams at Texas ran for an average of 44 yards MORE than his opponent typically allowed, the highest number I have seen in the last couple of years.
But, here is the difference in Dayne and Williams: Dayne 13 carries against UNLV. Williams...36 carries against New Mexico State (with their horrible rushing defense). Dayne received a game score of -125 against UNLV, while Williams received a game score of +41 in his game. Triple Dayne’s carries to 39, and his game score goes to +91.
CONCLUSION: Once again, Ron Dayne had a terrific season in 1998. His numbers were down a bit, in large part due to the better defenses he played against. His numbers did not compare to the Heisman Trophy winner, though much of that was due to the extreme number of carries Ricky Williams received, especially against bad teams.
2022 Update
Not sure I ever posted the numbers from Dayne's final season, but just to wrap things up, here they are.
As you can see, the numbers got even better as a senior. Once again, Dayne got off to a slow start as he only played about a half in the first 2-3 games, to the point that a vocal minority of the fanbase was upset with Alvarez for potentially costing Dayne the all-time rushing record as well as a potential Heisman.
Following the upset loss to Cincinnati, a game where Dayne played well overall but had a key fumble and was constantly having to be removed due to balky ankle, as well as an unspectacular Michigan game, most assumed the Heisman was gone.
The two big games that won Dayne the award were the Michigan State and Purdue games. Michigan State had an elite run defense, and Dayne just shredded them in his 3 quarters of playing time. Note that I did not bother to remove the Wisconsin game from the rush defense numbers, as I probably should have, which means that the MSU defensive rating was even better than indicated if not for the Badger game. For a quick rudimentary study, it just wasn't worth it.
The other big game was the Purdue game, a game which was billed as a Heisman showdown between Dayne and Drew Brees. Purdue had a solid defense but Dayne had a brilliant game, and from there it was pretty clear sailing.
I also find a bit of irony in that the Iowa game, a game that has since come known as the "Dayne Game", where he set the NCAA rushing record, resulting in a negative score, in part because Dayne did not play the full game in the blowout, but also because Iowa had the worst run defense in all of D1.
Following the upset loss to Cincinnati, a game where Dayne played well overall but had a key fumble and was constantly having to be removed due to balky ankle, as well as an unspectacular Michigan game, most assumed the Heisman was gone.
The two big games that won Dayne the award were the Michigan State and Purdue games. Michigan State had an elite run defense, and Dayne just shredded them in his 3 quarters of playing time. Note that I did not bother to remove the Wisconsin game from the rush defense numbers, as I probably should have, which means that the MSU defensive rating was even better than indicated if not for the Badger game. For a quick rudimentary study, it just wasn't worth it.
The other big game was the Purdue game, a game which was billed as a Heisman showdown between Dayne and Drew Brees. Purdue had a solid defense but Dayne had a brilliant game, and from there it was pretty clear sailing.
I also find a bit of irony in that the Iowa game, a game that has since come known as the "Dayne Game", where he set the NCAA rushing record, resulting in a negative score, in part because Dayne did not play the full game in the blowout, but also because Iowa had the worst run defense in all of D1.