The Myth of Badger Quarterbacks
Published October, 2017
I think people are frustrated that Hornibrook is actually worse this year. Seem many badger QBs not progress, actually regress
— Dale From Omro (@omrodale) October 8, 2017
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Head to any message board, sports bar, section in Camp Randall, or social media and you will see comments like this all the time. Other than one year of Russell Wilson and perhaps a year with Scott Tolzien, virtually every Badger quarterback has been met with similar statements about "if we only had a good quarterback" or at least something beyond a game manager.
So, I decided to take a look at the Badger QB play, relative to the rest of the Big Ten.
So, I decided to take a look at the Badger QB play, relative to the rest of the Big Ten.
I combined all QB numbers for all teams dating back to 2003. Why 2003? Well, that is as far back as the Big Ten website archives stats. While I have UW media guides and such, many do not have the rest of the Big Ten numbers, so 2003 it is.
I decided to look at three main stats: TD-INT ratio, yards per attempt, and passer efficiency. The first two are perhaps the best indicators of QB play, while efficiency combines those two into one metric.
To the right is how the Badgers rank from 2003 to 2016 in these categories.
I think these numbers speak for themselves. Ohio State is in a class by itself in terms of overall QB play, but Wisconsin is a pretty clear second and it isn't particularly close. I found it quite interesting that the Badgers have the best yards per attempt of any team, which tells you that while the quantity of throws isn't there, they are getting the most bang out of each pass.
It is a popular theory that Wisconsin fans have been spoiled by Favre and Rodgers up north, and given the grief that Badger QBs get despite their by and large stellar play, it is pretty hard to argue with the hypothesis.
Reasonable fans understand that Badger QBs generally play in a favorable context: strong running game, good OL, etc. I certainly can't or won't argue that this isn't typically true. However, you still have to execute within that context. Despite the numbers, I have no problem with the conclusion that we have not had great QBs for this reason, but that is a far cry from the annual howling about the ineptitude of Stocco, Stave, Hornibrook, etc. If the Badgers have gotten terrible QB play, what does that say about the rest of the Big Ten?
For some perspective, given a mid-level cutoff of a 125 efficiency as baseline "average" QB play, the only years we have been below that standard have been 2004 (Stocco, SOPH) , 2008 (Sherer, et al), and 2014 (Stave, JR), and even Stave's year in particular was just below that cut line. That is a pretty damn impressive run.
For the record, Hornibrook is at 165 range as of this writing. Of the 180 Big Ten quarterback seasons since 2003, his season would rank 5th behind...wait for it... the 168 of Scott Tolzien's Badgers, the 168 and 171 of JT Barrett's Buckeyes, and the incomprehensible 186 of Russell Wilson. That means his efficiency is better than EVERY QB SEASON OF EVERY OTHER BIG TEN TEAM other than two fellow Badgers and two seasons of Buckeyes. Does that make Hornibrook one of the all-time greats? No, but it does mean you look like an idiot if you want to rant about his incompetence.
I decided to look at three main stats: TD-INT ratio, yards per attempt, and passer efficiency. The first two are perhaps the best indicators of QB play, while efficiency combines those two into one metric.
To the right is how the Badgers rank from 2003 to 2016 in these categories.
I think these numbers speak for themselves. Ohio State is in a class by itself in terms of overall QB play, but Wisconsin is a pretty clear second and it isn't particularly close. I found it quite interesting that the Badgers have the best yards per attempt of any team, which tells you that while the quantity of throws isn't there, they are getting the most bang out of each pass.
It is a popular theory that Wisconsin fans have been spoiled by Favre and Rodgers up north, and given the grief that Badger QBs get despite their by and large stellar play, it is pretty hard to argue with the hypothesis.
Reasonable fans understand that Badger QBs generally play in a favorable context: strong running game, good OL, etc. I certainly can't or won't argue that this isn't typically true. However, you still have to execute within that context. Despite the numbers, I have no problem with the conclusion that we have not had great QBs for this reason, but that is a far cry from the annual howling about the ineptitude of Stocco, Stave, Hornibrook, etc. If the Badgers have gotten terrible QB play, what does that say about the rest of the Big Ten?
For some perspective, given a mid-level cutoff of a 125 efficiency as baseline "average" QB play, the only years we have been below that standard have been 2004 (Stocco, SOPH) , 2008 (Sherer, et al), and 2014 (Stave, JR), and even Stave's year in particular was just below that cut line. That is a pretty damn impressive run.
For the record, Hornibrook is at 165 range as of this writing. Of the 180 Big Ten quarterback seasons since 2003, his season would rank 5th behind...wait for it... the 168 of Scott Tolzien's Badgers, the 168 and 171 of JT Barrett's Buckeyes, and the incomprehensible 186 of Russell Wilson. That means his efficiency is better than EVERY QB SEASON OF EVERY OTHER BIG TEN TEAM other than two fellow Badgers and two seasons of Buckeyes. Does that make Hornibrook one of the all-time greats? No, but it does mean you look like an idiot if you want to rant about his incompetence.
2022 Update
I haven't updated this in about 5-6 years, and given the angst over the performance of Graham Mertz, I figured now might be a good time to do so. So, here are the updated numbers:
Well, numbers look about the same. Badger QB play HAS been down here and there the last few years, but the overall numbers remain solid. They still are clearly the second most efficient throwing team in the Big Ten, like everyone else, a mile behind Ohio State.
Their TD/INT rank dropped a couple spots to middle of the pack, which isn't surprising given what we have seen the last few years. However, while Mertz and the end of the Hornibrook era did have too many picks, I am probably in the minority in that I don't think that is the main reason for the middle of the pack ranking here. Instead, I think Badger QBs have always been punished statistically as Wisconsin's run tendency inside the five is more run heavy than most teams, resulting in fewer stat padding TD passes. I haven't look at the actual numbers, but that is just a guess. Add a couple cheap passing TDs per year and the Badgers are probably 4th or 5th. I suppose one could reason that this is because the coaches don't trust their QB in the tight quarter and that could be true, but like I stated, I tend to think that is them wanting to work to the strength of the OL, but who knows?
Yards per attempt dropped to second, but a lot of that is just Ohio State putting up obscene numbers more than anything. It does bear noting that Wisconsin's YPA HAS been very average the last couple years, which is reflective of the QB play. One the things that I have always pointed out is that guys like Stave, Hornibrook, etc. were VERY good at pushing the ball down the field, which made up for their perceived TO problems. Getting Mertz back into the mid 7's rather than high 6's is something to watch this year.
Finally, I just wanted to reiterate my conclusions from earlier. When you hear Badger fans talking about inept QB play, it really is more about their lack of understanding of what poor QB play actually is. Cripes, look at the numbers put up by those bottom 4-5 teams in the Big Ten. Remember that average QB efficiency is in that 125-126 range. To be considered above average, you need to be in that 140 and up range.
In three of the last four years, the perception has been that Wisconsin has had poor QB play: 2018 Hornibrook/Coan, 2020 Mertz, and 2021 Mertz. In those years, the QB efficiency has been 127, 124, and 121. By comparison to the standards set by the program, all were below average seasons and it is fair to expect more. However, the reality is that when compared to their peers around the Big Ten, that is no worse than average QB play. At some schools, that level of QB play might bring about a Heisman candidacy. It is all relative.
Their TD/INT rank dropped a couple spots to middle of the pack, which isn't surprising given what we have seen the last few years. However, while Mertz and the end of the Hornibrook era did have too many picks, I am probably in the minority in that I don't think that is the main reason for the middle of the pack ranking here. Instead, I think Badger QBs have always been punished statistically as Wisconsin's run tendency inside the five is more run heavy than most teams, resulting in fewer stat padding TD passes. I haven't look at the actual numbers, but that is just a guess. Add a couple cheap passing TDs per year and the Badgers are probably 4th or 5th. I suppose one could reason that this is because the coaches don't trust their QB in the tight quarter and that could be true, but like I stated, I tend to think that is them wanting to work to the strength of the OL, but who knows?
Yards per attempt dropped to second, but a lot of that is just Ohio State putting up obscene numbers more than anything. It does bear noting that Wisconsin's YPA HAS been very average the last couple years, which is reflective of the QB play. One the things that I have always pointed out is that guys like Stave, Hornibrook, etc. were VERY good at pushing the ball down the field, which made up for their perceived TO problems. Getting Mertz back into the mid 7's rather than high 6's is something to watch this year.
Finally, I just wanted to reiterate my conclusions from earlier. When you hear Badger fans talking about inept QB play, it really is more about their lack of understanding of what poor QB play actually is. Cripes, look at the numbers put up by those bottom 4-5 teams in the Big Ten. Remember that average QB efficiency is in that 125-126 range. To be considered above average, you need to be in that 140 and up range.
In three of the last four years, the perception has been that Wisconsin has had poor QB play: 2018 Hornibrook/Coan, 2020 Mertz, and 2021 Mertz. In those years, the QB efficiency has been 127, 124, and 121. By comparison to the standards set by the program, all were below average seasons and it is fair to expect more. However, the reality is that when compared to their peers around the Big Ten, that is no worse than average QB play. At some schools, that level of QB play might bring about a Heisman candidacy. It is all relative.