The Rise of Alabama and the SEC
After watching Bama take apart another team in the CFB playoffs last night, I continue to wonder how much of a role ESPN has had in their rise. With all due credit to Coach Saban and his staff, I am not convinced that ESPN has not played at least some role in their rise.
Back in the 1980's and 1990's, there was a lot of variance year to year about which conference was the best. One year it would be the SEC, another the B10, another the P10, etc. And yet, as we saw the rise of the pundit business and the ESPN talking heads, we continuously heard about the dominance of the SEC...all the anecdotes about the speed of the south, etc. From a Badger perspective,. sometimes this was true. and sometimes it was not. We had the 97 Georgia team which dismantled an overmatched Badger team, but also the 06 game vs. Auburn where the Badgers sure played a heck of a lot faster. Either way, the "SEC dominance" line was overblown.
Whether this was a subversive agenda related to promoting programming (esp. with the rise of the B10 network, a competitor to the ESPN family) or just lazy analysis repeated so often it became fact in the eyes of analysts is irrelevant. At some point, did this become a self-fulfilling prophesy? Over time, this perception seeps into minds of recruits, who now further flock to SEC powers in lieu of going to USC or Miami or Michigan or PSU or Texas. SEC schools have always had advantages given the natural recruiting base, academic standards, weather, cultural importance of college football, or willingness to outspend everyone else (see contract of Dave Aranda). But the constant yammering of ESPN talking heads further cements the shift in the talent pipelines.
With the advent of the College Football Playoffs in 2014, we have seen this even further. Yes, I get that Alabama is really, really good, but ESPN's non-stop barrage of playoff talk throughout the year has become a walking, talking billboard for Alabama and the SEC, garneering free publicity at halftime of every game. Top recruits now know that if they want to compete for a national championship, Alabama, and to a lesser extent the SEC, is the only real consideration. Note that I am not saying you can't win it elsewhere, but rather that the odds are pretty heavily stacked in one direction and at what point does perception become reality?
In the last 13 years, the SEC has been ranked as the #1 conference (per Howell) 11 times. In the 14 years from 1992 through 2005, they were the top ranked conference just 3 times. How many fans would be surprised to know that the Big Ten was the toughest conference in the country 4 times from 1994 through 2002 or that the PAC 10 reigned supreme in the last 80's and into the early 90's? I certainly don't recall hearing that from the ESPN talking heads. I don't recall hearing about "Big Ten speed" from '94 through '96 when they were the best conference in America (and I do recall hearing about the demise of the Big Ten many times over the last two decades).
Back in the 1980's and 1990's, there was a lot of variance year to year about which conference was the best. One year it would be the SEC, another the B10, another the P10, etc. And yet, as we saw the rise of the pundit business and the ESPN talking heads, we continuously heard about the dominance of the SEC...all the anecdotes about the speed of the south, etc. From a Badger perspective,. sometimes this was true. and sometimes it was not. We had the 97 Georgia team which dismantled an overmatched Badger team, but also the 06 game vs. Auburn where the Badgers sure played a heck of a lot faster. Either way, the "SEC dominance" line was overblown.
Whether this was a subversive agenda related to promoting programming (esp. with the rise of the B10 network, a competitor to the ESPN family) or just lazy analysis repeated so often it became fact in the eyes of analysts is irrelevant. At some point, did this become a self-fulfilling prophesy? Over time, this perception seeps into minds of recruits, who now further flock to SEC powers in lieu of going to USC or Miami or Michigan or PSU or Texas. SEC schools have always had advantages given the natural recruiting base, academic standards, weather, cultural importance of college football, or willingness to outspend everyone else (see contract of Dave Aranda). But the constant yammering of ESPN talking heads further cements the shift in the talent pipelines.
With the advent of the College Football Playoffs in 2014, we have seen this even further. Yes, I get that Alabama is really, really good, but ESPN's non-stop barrage of playoff talk throughout the year has become a walking, talking billboard for Alabama and the SEC, garneering free publicity at halftime of every game. Top recruits now know that if they want to compete for a national championship, Alabama, and to a lesser extent the SEC, is the only real consideration. Note that I am not saying you can't win it elsewhere, but rather that the odds are pretty heavily stacked in one direction and at what point does perception become reality?
In the last 13 years, the SEC has been ranked as the #1 conference (per Howell) 11 times. In the 14 years from 1992 through 2005, they were the top ranked conference just 3 times. How many fans would be surprised to know that the Big Ten was the toughest conference in the country 4 times from 1994 through 2002 or that the PAC 10 reigned supreme in the last 80's and into the early 90's? I certainly don't recall hearing that from the ESPN talking heads. I don't recall hearing about "Big Ten speed" from '94 through '96 when they were the best conference in America (and I do recall hearing about the demise of the Big Ten many times over the last two decades).
Here is a comparison between the Big Ten and the SEC. (Note that a 5 indicates the best of the power 5 teams, while a 1 indicates the worst. I know it seems counter intuitive but it is a statement of my Google chart making abilities, but I digress.) Note that throughout most of the 90's and into the mid 2000's, there was an ebb and flow between the two conferences. However, I don't believe this matched AT ALL the narrative we heard from ESPN and the pundits. Over time, does that help contribute to the trend lines we have seen in the last 10-12 years?
Here is what it looks like relative to other conferences. By and large, yes, the SEC has been the best conference over time. We had the PAC 10 in the late 80'as/early 90's and the Big Ten in the mid 90's, but overall, the record is what it is. however, of note is the gap that has developed over time. We no longer have the ebb and flow of conference strength, and I wonder how much the coverage of the SEC has created this gap?
Back in the early 90's, I never recall much of a debate about "who is the best conference", at least in the mainstream media. We didn't have SEC mouth breathers chanting, "SEC!" in the stands until this became a thing with the pundits and somehow conference pride became something tangible. Maybe I was weird but I enjoyed seeing Michigan and Ohio State lose in the Rose Bowl every year (given the shellacking they often gave to the Badgers). But, when it did, the pundits often were not correct. The SEC was NOT always the best conference year to year, and yet this was the narrative fans of non-SEC schools heard ad nauseum. Bowl records, no matter the matchup disparity or the home geography advantage, became a primary talking point.
Look I don't begrudge the SEC their success. I get that college football ranks much higher in terms of life priorities in that part of the country. I get that they are willing to pour more resources into football than the rest of the country. I get that they have better weather, more population growth, and most importantly, better natural recruiting bases that teams in many parts of the nation. All of those things contribute to success. However, I also believe that perception is also formed by the narratives fans (and recruits) hear day after day and year after year. I get, now, why some 5-star recruit believes that if he is truly as good as everyone believes, he needs to suit up for LSU or Bama or Georgia instead of PSU or Texas or USC. They have heard it their entire lives. What was once a small gap that fluctuated year to year has now become a large and very real gap.
The question is not whether the SEC will get their champion into the playoffs. It is whether they will get 1 or 2 teams in. The SEC champion will NEVER be left out of the playoffs, regardless of whatever shitty NC schedule they play or regardless of their computer power ranking. The aura/perception that has been created, is now real and it is just another thing that every other conference needs to contend with (ie. fighting over the SEC table scraps.)
In the case of Alabama, take a rich history, massive resources, a great coach and THEN top if off with widespread coverage and accolades and a playoff system that has become self-perpetuating, and we get what we now have....a playoff system that virtually nobody really cares about beyond the fan-bases of a couple schools.
Back in the early 90's, I never recall much of a debate about "who is the best conference", at least in the mainstream media. We didn't have SEC mouth breathers chanting, "SEC!" in the stands until this became a thing with the pundits and somehow conference pride became something tangible. Maybe I was weird but I enjoyed seeing Michigan and Ohio State lose in the Rose Bowl every year (given the shellacking they often gave to the Badgers). But, when it did, the pundits often were not correct. The SEC was NOT always the best conference year to year, and yet this was the narrative fans of non-SEC schools heard ad nauseum. Bowl records, no matter the matchup disparity or the home geography advantage, became a primary talking point.
Look I don't begrudge the SEC their success. I get that college football ranks much higher in terms of life priorities in that part of the country. I get that they are willing to pour more resources into football than the rest of the country. I get that they have better weather, more population growth, and most importantly, better natural recruiting bases that teams in many parts of the nation. All of those things contribute to success. However, I also believe that perception is also formed by the narratives fans (and recruits) hear day after day and year after year. I get, now, why some 5-star recruit believes that if he is truly as good as everyone believes, he needs to suit up for LSU or Bama or Georgia instead of PSU or Texas or USC. They have heard it their entire lives. What was once a small gap that fluctuated year to year has now become a large and very real gap.
The question is not whether the SEC will get their champion into the playoffs. It is whether they will get 1 or 2 teams in. The SEC champion will NEVER be left out of the playoffs, regardless of whatever shitty NC schedule they play or regardless of their computer power ranking. The aura/perception that has been created, is now real and it is just another thing that every other conference needs to contend with (ie. fighting over the SEC table scraps.)
In the case of Alabama, take a rich history, massive resources, a great coach and THEN top if off with widespread coverage and accolades and a playoff system that has become self-perpetuating, and we get what we now have....a playoff system that virtually nobody really cares about beyond the fan-bases of a couple schools.