Alex Hornibrook's Sack Avoidance
Published November, 2017
One of the common criticisms of Alex Hornibrook is his lack of mobility. While I don't see how this can be denied based simply upon the eye test, I wanted to take a quick look as to how impactful this lack of mobility might be. More specifically, while some QBs are able to avoid sacks with their feet, others are able to avoid sacks by getting rid of the ball quickly (or even by throwing into a tight window). Russell Wilson was a QB who avoided sacks via great feet, whereas Scott Tolzien was well-known for being able to release the ball quickly while taking hits. Sacks obviously are hugely a function of OL play as well, which goes without saying.
First, I wanted to simply look at sack percentage. Sacks allowed are widely available, but are typically not broken down relative to passing attempts. It still has some issues which I will address, but is a good jumping off point. In the attached chart, you can see the Badgers rank 6th in terms of passing attempt per pass. It is very fair to point out that Wisconsin throws less than most teams, which skews their raw sacks allowed totals. However, even adjusting, they are upper middle of the pack in the Big Ten. My initial conclusion would be that Wisconsin's OL is better pass blockers than we (or at least I) sometimes assume. I also think it is fair to conclude that Hornibrook would rather unload the ball than take a sack, which of course has its ups and downs.
First, I wanted to simply look at sack percentage. Sacks allowed are widely available, but are typically not broken down relative to passing attempts. It still has some issues which I will address, but is a good jumping off point. In the attached chart, you can see the Badgers rank 6th in terms of passing attempt per pass. It is very fair to point out that Wisconsin throws less than most teams, which skews their raw sacks allowed totals. However, even adjusting, they are upper middle of the pack in the Big Ten. My initial conclusion would be that Wisconsin's OL is better pass blockers than we (or at least I) sometimes assume. I also think it is fair to conclude that Hornibrook would rather unload the ball than take a sack, which of course has its ups and downs.
The second factor I would like to address is the type of passes throws. Obviously, spread teams that dink and dunk the ball off of 3 step drops are going to have better numbers than 5-7 step drop classic dropback teams, so let's address yards per attempt. Looking at the table, you can see Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in yards per attempt, at a quite impressive 9+ yards per attempt. This is significant and could it elevate their standing from the previously stated 6th in the Big Ten. For instance, Rutgers QBs have been sacked slightly less often than Hornibrook, but they also only throw for only 5+ yards per attempt. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in fewest sacks per attempt, but they also throw it less downfield than teams like Iowa, Ohio State, or Nebraska. It is interesting to note that teams that rate the best in terms of sacks allowed, also have the higher yards per attempt, which leads to the rather simple conclusion that the better your pass pro, the most you are able to throw it down the field so it very well may be a chicken-egg deal.
Finally, let's address QB running numbers. This is the big wildcard because some QB runs are indeed, plays designed for the QB to run. We see this with guys like Barrett at OSU, Thomas as Illinois, etc. However, some are drop back passes where QBs make plays (or non-plays) with their feet. Unfortunately, I do not have data available for total drop-backs, but I think this would change the numbers listed in some cases substantially. We can certainly eliminate the sacks from the QB runs (see table), but we can't account for how many were designed passes vs.runs. In Wisconsin's case, since Hornibrook runs less often than any other QB, it would add more drop-back attempts to the other teams, thereby dropping the Badgers further down the protection rankings. Now, I will also say that while it can be very productive to have a QB run the ball when needed, it is automatically better than NOT running and delivering the ball? For instance, Wisconsin averages 9.1 yards per attempt, while AH has 0 yards on his 3 "scrambles", so we can obviously state that we are much happier if Alex throws the ball, even at the risk of a sack, as by and large, the play has a better chance of positive yardage. But, take someone like Nate Stanley who has run just 17 times for a total of 50 some yards. Can't we also say the same there, since the 3 yards he gets on a run are going to be less than the 7-8 yards he would make on an attempt? Obviously, the best case is to have a QB who can execute what needs to be done in the moment (sometimes that 3 yard run is key if it is 3rd and 2). Heck, sometimes a sack is better than an interception, so that argument adds another variable to the equations.
Ultimately, I don't have any real conclusions but I simply wanted to go through the thought-experiment of what the numbers might tell us and whether they match what we see from watching Alex Hornibrook. The numbers are posted above, so draw whatever conclusions you wish, regardless of my ramblings. Too much of fan discourse is random rants without much substance to back it up. I do think it is quite amazing that we are entering game 10 and he doesn't have a single positive yard on a single play while running the ball this year. While this absolutely speaks to a limitation, it also speaks to some degree about him knowing what his limitations are, and while Wisconsin's pass protection numbers aren't great, they aren't terrible either given how immobile Hornibrook is. I also think it speaks to how effective he has been when the pocket has been kept clean, as there are some very solid passing number that are difficult to ignore.
Finally, let's address QB running numbers. This is the big wildcard because some QB runs are indeed, plays designed for the QB to run. We see this with guys like Barrett at OSU, Thomas as Illinois, etc. However, some are drop back passes where QBs make plays (or non-plays) with their feet. Unfortunately, I do not have data available for total drop-backs, but I think this would change the numbers listed in some cases substantially. We can certainly eliminate the sacks from the QB runs (see table), but we can't account for how many were designed passes vs.runs. In Wisconsin's case, since Hornibrook runs less often than any other QB, it would add more drop-back attempts to the other teams, thereby dropping the Badgers further down the protection rankings. Now, I will also say that while it can be very productive to have a QB run the ball when needed, it is automatically better than NOT running and delivering the ball? For instance, Wisconsin averages 9.1 yards per attempt, while AH has 0 yards on his 3 "scrambles", so we can obviously state that we are much happier if Alex throws the ball, even at the risk of a sack, as by and large, the play has a better chance of positive yardage. But, take someone like Nate Stanley who has run just 17 times for a total of 50 some yards. Can't we also say the same there, since the 3 yards he gets on a run are going to be less than the 7-8 yards he would make on an attempt? Obviously, the best case is to have a QB who can execute what needs to be done in the moment (sometimes that 3 yard run is key if it is 3rd and 2). Heck, sometimes a sack is better than an interception, so that argument adds another variable to the equations.
Ultimately, I don't have any real conclusions but I simply wanted to go through the thought-experiment of what the numbers might tell us and whether they match what we see from watching Alex Hornibrook. The numbers are posted above, so draw whatever conclusions you wish, regardless of my ramblings. Too much of fan discourse is random rants without much substance to back it up. I do think it is quite amazing that we are entering game 10 and he doesn't have a single positive yard on a single play while running the ball this year. While this absolutely speaks to a limitation, it also speaks to some degree about him knowing what his limitations are, and while Wisconsin's pass protection numbers aren't great, they aren't terrible either given how immobile Hornibrook is. I also think it speaks to how effective he has been when the pocket has been kept clean, as there are some very solid passing number that are difficult to ignore.